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Further reading [edit] "How the Big Tobacco Deal Went Bad"

Here's the scenario: NGP profits improve by 250m/yr, from reported losses of 1bn in 2021 to management's target of break-even in 2025 NGP profits continue growing by 250m/yr until they reach 1.25bn in 2030 The combustibles business produces sufficient earnings to grow BAT's overall earnings by 3% per year to 2030 Heres a chart showing what that would look like: The blue line shows NGP losses gradually turning into profits and the amber line shows headline earnings growing at about 3% per year

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Currency exposure adds another important risk factor to the mix, given the company's substantial dollar-denominated debt